Monday, March 2, 2009

Real Estate: Predicting what will happen next...

The current real estate market is a conundrum for some, but for those who study history it is nothing new. Although we have seen some record declines in recent years, we have also seen record appreciation just prior to those declines? So what does that mean to the savvy investors like Robert Kiyosaki, Carleton Sheets, and that Trump guy? They likely foresaw a turn of this nature based on the historical records found on websites like Here is a graph of the historical home values in the United States:

As you can see there have been several up and downs in the history of our country. Funny enough they seem to correspond in many ways to major wars and trying times in our economy. It is also interesting to note that it didn’t take long into the great depression to see home values rise considerably. World War 2 all but decimated the gains found throughout the latter half of the Great Depression.

If history paints a picture of the world of real estate, what can we expect from here? This is an honest question that has everyone up in arms, making predictions, and totally confused. If they were to only study history they would see that we are close to the bottom, but have a few years to go before we will see any gains. It could even be decades before we see double digit gains in appreciation. To me this means that we need to be even more conscience of the return on investment we receive through cash on cash returns. The major reason I am buying property in Tooele County Utah and Kansas City, MO is because the gains from cash on cash are more significant than other areas I have found in the country. These areas have given me opportunities to own property and earn a greater return on investment. If anyone has any questions to how I find deals please let me know. I really enjoy sharing my findings with others and am even planning on taking a buying tour out to Kansas City later this year if I get enough interested parties. So before you go burying your head in the sand feeling that the sky is falling, just remember that this is only another part of the real estate cycle!

Geoff Dearing


1 comment:

Vijay said...


Thanks for your post. Real estate.It is very difficult to make a prediction on the trend as far as real estate is concerned